Designed with the Principles of Nature

• We study history to learn and apply this wisdom to the present and future. While history typically doesn’t repeat exactly, it often rhymes. And these natural, wave-like rhythms show up across society, markets, politics, nature and technology across varying time scales
• Just as self-similar patterns — known as fractals — appear throughout Nature, similar patterns repeat at varied scales throughout markets and history. We seek to utilize this pattern recognition to capitalize on markets and proactively prepare for what is likely to come
• Study the Past. Observe the Present. Imagine the Future.

Designed with the principles of Nature — where fractals (e.g., rivers, trees), waves (e.g., ocean, sound), and cycles (e.g., seasons, life) are inherent — our framework breaks down the components of the overall system to help us better understand these patterns, why they repeat, where we likely are on these various waves, and the most likely path(s) ahead

We observe how systems actually work, and don’t just accept how they should work. The purpose of a system is what it does…

We meld together multiple proven macro-level cycle frameworks to better understand the bigger picture backdrop:

• DEMOGRAPHICS: Strauss-Howe Generational Theory & the Four Turnings
• MONEY: Ray Dalio’s Short-Term & Long-Term Debt Cycles
• LIQUIDITY: Michael Howell’s Global Liquidity Cycle
• TECHNOLOGY: Carlota Perez’s Technological Revolutions & Financial Capital and Kondratiev Waves
• SEMICONDUCTORS: Semiconductor Cycles & Scaling
• EMPIRES: David Murrin’s Empire Life Cycle
• GEOPOLITICS: Peter Zeihan’s Globalization & De-Globalization Framework
• ENERGY: World Energy Sources Throughout History
• ASTROLOGY: Astrological Cycles & World Events

Piecing together these often overlapping sub-system cycle frameworks, the bigger picture, longer time-frame backdrop becomes clearer

We map these multiple waves so we can better pinpoint where we are within each of the respective cycles and create a current holistic picture for the overall system

We then use this long-cycle picture to understand the secular trends that are likely to be persistent for years, if not decades. The themes (and sub-themes) that come out of this analysis are then paired with our areas of expertise — this combination provides a filter for “where to fish” and helps us generate our overall Universe

We spend a lot of time curating the best thinkers in their respective fields, delving deeply into their research, thought processes, and track records, and ultimately adapting these learnings into our own framework — bundling the unbundled

We are not experts in each field, but by listening and utilizing this curation process, we can ‘stand on the shoulders of giants’ — using each as a building block to raise our awareness and understanding of the system

Our themes — and thus our content and strategies — revolve around the three major pillars or building blocks of Power that have been consistent across history: Technology, Energy, & Money

Cascade (systematic) and Confluence (systematic + discretionary) diverge in their processes and how each tool is applied

From here, we utilize a variety of qualitative and quantitative tools — from fundamental analysis to positioning to technicals — to analyze the curated Universe

The customized versions of these tools are rooted in the mathematical principles found in Nature — from Fibonacci numbers, to Golden Primes, and Elliot Waves

And we apply the Natural sciences of Physics and Biology directly to better understand the intricacies of the complex adaptive system

• Physics helps us understand the dynamics of the market structure and system as a whole — particularly helpful for higher level idea generation and risk management
• Biology helps us understand the competitive environment and the companies (‘organisms’) most likely to survive and thrive within the system — delving deeper to identify specific resilient and adaptable assets (‘Complexity Investing’)

With this cross-discipline approach, rooted in the principles of Nature, we are better able to “listen” to what the system and its components are telling us, rather than impose our emotional and cognitive biases

Throughout this process, we apply machine-learning to systematically identify often non-obvious patterns, and filter the signal from the noise

We overlay several of our other custom-built filters — from management quality analysis to incentive alignment — to narrow down the field even further

At the bottom of the funnel, the outputs are actionable ideas coupled with a better understanding of why. We ultimately look for ideas that are both at the confluence of our themes — the center of the Venn diagram — and at the bottom of the funnel